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TITLE PAGE
INVESTMENT ANALYSIS OF TIDAL CURRENT TURBINE IN NIGERIA USING ARTIFICIAL NEURAL NETWORK
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DECEMBER,2018
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Electricity remains an essential commodity and is one of the most used forms of energy which can be generated from renewable and non-renewable (re)sources. Resource assessment has always constituted an initial first step in determining the potential of a resource to produce useful energy. In this work, two-dimensional aperiodic tidal series data are assessed using artificial neural network. A fast and accurate computational MATLAB Toolbox/code was developed to characterize the data to precisely elucidate the results. Furthermore, because investors and developers require information on the economic feasibility of their investments, a levelized cost of energy (LCOE) analysis is also performed to understand the economic implications of the resource. The results indicate technically and economically significant resource potential.
CHAPTER ONE
1.0 INTRODUCTION
1.1 BACKGROUND OF THE STUDY
Tidal Energy has been used in some capacity for many years. Throughout history through the use of tidal mills, mechanical energy from tidal currents were extracted and utilized for human activities such as pumping water or crushing grain.
Only during the last century that the energy from tidal currents has been started to be extracted and converted into electricity. The only method that is currently used to generate electricity from the tides is a tidal barrage. A Tidal Barrage consists of a wall with turbines in situ. Similar to the operation of a dam a tidal barrage harnesses energy by creating a difference in water level between the inner basin and the sea and by letting water flow through the turbines during operating periods, electricity can be produced.
A similar process can harness the energy of the tide using a structure similar to a wind turbine. In this case the kinetic energy of the tide is extracted due to the fast flowing body of water passing the turbine in the ocean.
The oceans which cover more than 70% of the Earth’s surface and with 53% of its population living near a coast are receiving significant and growing attention as a potential source of energy that would contribute to increasing global demand sustainably. Theoretically, the oceans contain an energy source that is far larger than the human race could utilize, though, in practical terms, much of the resource remains inaccessible. Despite the difficulties, several governments and private institutions around the world are revisiting the idea of tidal power as a greener alternative to fossil fuel and nuclear power generation schemes.
Tidal stream energy continues to gain attention as a source of predictable and renewable energy. Tidal streams are very close in concept to traditional wind turbines; however, instead of operating with air currents, they draw energy from water currents/tidal waves. Tides are caused by the gravitational pull of the moon and the sun on the rotating earth. The associated motion of these bodies leads the surfaces of the oceans to be raised and lowered periodically, according to some interacting cycles. These cycles can be categorized as (1) half-day cycles, which are due to the rotation of the earth within the gravitational field; (2) 14-day cycles which are a combination of the gravitational field of the moon and the sun, yielding alternating spring (maximum) and neap (minimum) tides; (3) half-year cycles which are due to the inclination of the moon’s orbit relative to that of the earth, yielding, in general, maxima in the spring tides in March and September; and (4) other cycles such as those more than 19 years and 1600 years due to complex gravitational interactions [1].
Tidal stream energy works much like hydro-electric power (HEP) and wind turbine (WT) systems that use underwater devices that resemble wind turbines and are placed in fast tidal streams to extract energy. An array of these devices is often deployed to deliver significant amounts of energy to the electricity grid. The amount of energy obtainable from a tidal energy power system varies with location and time. A single tidal stream generator is, however, able to produce significantly more power than a wind turbine due to the higher density of water. The output changes as the tide ebb and flood are daily varying by a factor of four over a spring-neap cycle. Nonetheless, tidal energy is highly predictable in both magnitude and timing, more so than the wind and solar forms of energy. Tidal currents are the horizontal components of the flow of water that are associated with propagating waves. We note that in some regards, the velocities can be greatly enhanced and magnified in straits between islands or between islands and mainland [2]. The current in the water is, thus, much more reliable than the wind in the air.
The modern world as we know it today will grind to a halt without the necessary electrical energy infrastructure. Access to stable and secure energy is a key driver of today’s economic prosperity. Most nations today are taking an “all of the above” strategy towards energy security and sustainability; countries are developing every available energy resource within their terrain to meet the growing demand due to population pressures in a sustainable way. Evidently, fossil fuels and carbonaceous forms of energy are no longer the energy of the future. They are neither sustainable nor advantageous to the environment. Even with the price collapse of oil, renewable forms of energy continue to grow in capacity and remain very competitive with conventional forms of energy [3].
The objectives of concerned scientists, energy enthusiasts, environmentalists, and researchers are to continue to present the many alternatives that are available to alleviate the electrical power problem, which would lead to a more sustainable energy future. Resource characterization constitutes the first step in that approach. Thus, in this work, we perform resource characterization of Nigeria’s tidal energy resources, for selected sites, together with an LCOE analysis of the respective sites. Several studies have been reported on geographical sites in various parts of the world, to the assessment of the potential for tidal current energy utilization [4,5,6,7,8,9]. Tidal current technology continues to progress rapidly particularly in the United Kingdom.
As such, the aim of this work is for resource characterization, and we adopt/adapt a modified continuous wavelet transform method (CWT), applied to three selected sites. To the best of our knowledge, and together with our earlier work [10], it represents the first series of research work characterizing aperiodic tidal data. Most works in the literature are to periodic tidal data. As such analyzing aperiodic tidal data constitutes a knowledge gap and the significance of this work. The novelty/originality here compliments the existing body of knowledge from an international perspective while emphasizing the issues of Nigeria. The modified methodology used in this work was originally developed by Foster for application to astronomical data, and it is explained in detail through examples in Ref. [11]. Foster [11] modified the wavelet method, in particular, continuous wavelet transform, called the modified transform weighted wavelet Z-transform and applied for analyzing irregularly measured astronomical data. Here, we apply Foster’s modification to unevenly spaced or aperiodic tidal data and is discussed further later.
1.2 PROBLEM STATEMENT
The electrical energy problem in Nigeria can be broadly categorized into three main pillars: (1) quantity; (2) reliability; and (3) efficiency. Quantity reflects the supply–demand imbalance, where what is generated and supplied is non-optimal. The supply–demand gap is believed to be the biggest in the world. Reliability pertains to the frequency or regularity of electrical energy supply, whereas efficiency stems from the overall effectiveness of the system to wheel power to the end-users from the source, and the quality of the supplied electricity to be effectively used. Nigeria continues to be ranked as a developing nation, on the whole, due to its poor electrical energy supply. Her generating capacity, which is less than 5000 MW, is much less than the energy produced by less-populous countries, e.g., South Africa, whose capacity is about 50,000 MW. Nigeria produces about 40 Kw per thousand people, whereas South Africa produces 270 Kw per thousand people. The several phases of electrical energy utilization, that is, generation, transmission, and distribution continue to account for about only 1% of Nigeria’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP). It has been estimated that GDP growth could be increased by as much as 11% if electrical energy supply was regular. Several reforms initiated by past and present government administrations are yet to be fully and more efficiently realized.
From a developer’s and an investor’s perspective, it is paramount to know the effectiveness and economics of utilizing an energy resource for electricity production. The associated costs of renewable energy technologies (RETs) continue to plummet due to improved technologies, regulatory incentives, increasing supply, and, demand for RETs, making them very competitive with conventional forms of energy. To evaluate the economics, the comparison is based on a levelized cost of energy (LCOE) analysis. The LCOE analysis is an approximation that yields a break-even sales price.
1.3 AIM AND OBJECTIVES OF THE PROJECT
The main aim of this work is to analyze the energy resource regarding its cost-effectiveness and goes further to evaluate upfront capital expenditures such as operating costs that need to be spent annually.
Objectives
At the end of this work we are going to determine a price point for utilizing tidal energy in Nigeria and determine the variables that can contribute toward achieving and sustaining grid-parity with traditional grid power costs.
1.4 SCOPE OF THE PROJECT
The study deals with the development of a Matlab-Simulink model to simulate a Tidal Current Turbine. The purpose of the simulation model is to evaluate the potential for Tidal Current Power Generation in Nigeria. Analysis from the World Tides gave the corresponding value of the amplitude; frequency and phase for each tidal constituent and the cost of investment were also analyzed in the work artificial neural network. Power from a typical single turbine was modeled in MATLAB/Simulink. The financially feasibility under current technology was also analyzed. However, with the great interest shown in this area in recent times, lower installation cost, and the urge to “go green”, this will be applicable in the future.
1.5 ADVANTAGES OF TIDAL ENERGY
1. Renewable
Tidal Energy is a renewable energy source. This energy source is a result of the gravitational fields from both the sun and the moon, combined with the earth’s rotation around its axis, resulting in high and low tides.
It is this difference in potential energy that is the source of power generation from tidal energy, whether we are talking about stream generators, tidal barrages or more the more recent technology, dynamic tidal power (DTP).
2. Green
Tidal power is an environmentally friendly energy source. In addition to being a renewable energy, it does not emit any climate gases and does not take up a lot of space.
However, there are currently very few examples from real tidal power plants and their effects on the enviroment. An important task is therefore to study and assess these things.
3. Predictable
Tidal currents are highly predictable. High and low tide develop with well-known cycles, making it easier to construct the system with right dimensions, since we already know what kind of powers the equipment will be exposed to.
Because of this, even though the turbines that are being used (tidal stream generators that is) are very similar to wind turbines, both the physical size and the installed capacity has entirely other limitations.
4. Effective at Low Speeds
Water has 1000 times higher density than air, which makes it possible to generate electricity at low speeds. Calculations show that power can be generated even at 1m/s (equivalent to a little over 3ft/s).
5. Long Lifespans
Tidal power plants are not long lived. This ultimately reduces the cost these power plants can sell their electricity, making tidal energy more cost-competitive.
1.6 PROJECT ORGANISATION
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