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Obsolescence of electronic parts is a major contributor to the life cycle cost of long- field life systems such as avionics. A methodology to forecast life cycles of electronic parts is presented, in which both years to obsolescence and life cycle stages are predicted. The methodology embeds both market and technology factors based on the dynamic assessment of sales data. The predictions enabled from the models developed in this paper allow engineers to effectively manage the introduction and on-going use of long field-life products based on the projected life cycle of the parts incorporated into the products. Application of the methodology to integrated circuits is discussed and obsolescence predictions for DRAMs are demonstrated. The goal is to significantly reduce design iterations, inventory expenses, sustainment costs, and overall life cycle product costs.

 

 

TABLE OF CONTENTS
COVER PAGE
TITLE PAGE
APPROVAL PAGE
DEDICATION
ACKNOWELDGEMENT
GLOSSARY
ABSTRACT
CHAPTER ONE
1.0      INTRODUCTION
1.1      BACKGROUND OF THE STUDY

• OBJECTIVE OF THE STUDY
• PURPOSE OF THE STUDY
• BENEFIT OF THE STUDY
• SIGNIFICANCE OF THE STUDY
• SCOPE OF THE STUDY
• APPLICATION OF THE STUDY
• LIFE CYCLE STAGES
• LIFE STAGES COST
•       LIFE CYCLE FORECASTING METHODO

3.2      DISCUSSION

•       SUMMARY

3.4      REFERENCES

 

 

CHAPTER ONE
1.0                                                                     INTRODUCTION
The electronics industry is one of the most dynamic sectors of the world economy. In the United States, this industry has grown at a rate three times that of the overall economy in the last ten years. The semiconductor industry is now number one in value-added to the U.S. economy, and the computer and consumer industry segments dwarf most other market segments.
The rapid growth of the electronics industry has spurred dramatic changes in the electronic parts, which comprise the products and systems that the public buys. Increases in speed, reductions in feature size and supply voltage, and changes in interconnection and packaging technologies are becoming events that occur nearly monthly. Consequently, many of the electronic parts that compose a product have a life cycle that is significantly shorter than the life cycle of the product. The part becomes obsolete when it is no longer manufactured, either because demand has dropped to low enough levels that it is not practical for manufacturers to continue to make it, or because the materials or technologies necessary to produce it are no longer available. The public’s demand for products with increased warranties only makes the obsolescence problem worse. Therefore, unless the system being designed has a short life (manufacturing and field), or the product is the driving force behind the part’s market (e.g., personnel computers driving the microprocessor market), there is a high likelihood of a life cycle mismatch between the parts and the product.
The life cycle mismatch problem requires that during design, engineers be cognizant of which parts will be available and which parts may be obsolete during a product’s manufacturing run. This problem is prevalent in many avionics and military systems, where systems may encounter obsolescence problems before being fielded and often experience obsolescence problems during field life [2]. These problems are exacerbated by manufacturing that may take place over long periods of time, the high cost of system qualification or certification that make design refreshes using newer parts an extremely expensive undertaking. However, obsolescence problems are not the sole domain of avionics and military systems. Consumer products, such as pagers, are divided into two groups – 1) cutting edge (latest and greatest technology), and 2) workhorse, minimal feature set products (such as the pagers used to tell restaurant patrons that their table is ready). While the first set is unlikely to ever encounter obsolescence problems,  the second set often does. Because OEMs require long lifetimes out of workhorse products, critical parts often become obsolete before the last product is manufactured.
If a product requires a long application life, then an open architecture, or a parts obsolescence management strategy may be required. Many obsolescence mitigation approaches have been proposed and are being used. These approaches include [3], lifetime or last time buys (buying and storing enough parts to meet the system’s forecasted lifetime requirements or requirements until a redesign is possible), part substitution (using a different part with identical or similar form fit and function), and redesign (upgrading the system to make use of newer parts). Several other mitigation approaches are also practical in some situations: aftermarket sources (third parties that continue to provide the part after it’s manufacturer has obsoleted it), emulation (using parts with identical form fit and function that are fabricated using newer technologies), reclaim (using parts salvaged from other products), and up-rating. Up-rating is the process of using parts outside of their manufacturer specified environmental range (usually at higher temperatures than rated by the manufacturer) [4]. Up-rating is becoming a common mitigation approach because the obsolete part is often the “MIL-SPEC” part while the commercial version of the part continues to exist. In some cases, the best obsolescence mitigation approach for OEMs who needs a broader environmental range part (often automotive, avionics, and military) is to “uprate” the commercial version of the part.

Earlier works have concentrated on understanding the product life cycle in terms of factors including product life cycle stages, product life, extension of product life, and product marketing issues [5]. The factor of obsolescence is not dwelt upon, but in the case of products, obsolescence may not be an issue depending on what the definition of a product is. For example, if a company’s product is a sub-assembly, then obsolescence of that product, which may be due to obsolescence of a critical part, may affect the end- product life. Between part obsolescence and product obsolescence, part obsolescence needs more critical attention as the root of obsolescence at any product level, is the obsolescence of a part.

1.2                                            OBJECTIVE OF THE STUDY
A part becomes obsolete when it is no longer manufactured, either because demand has dropped to low enough levels that it is not practical for manufacturers to continue to make it, or because the materials or technologies necessary to produce it are no longer available. The main aim of this work is to study a method of predicting the year of obsolescence of an electronics system.

1.3                                             PURPOSE OF THE STUDY
The main purpose of this seminar is to significantly reduce design iterations, inventory expenses, sustainment costs, and overall life cycle product costs.
1.4                                                   BENEFITS OF THE STUDY
1. Helps planning for system redesigns and periodic upgrades accordingly
2. Reduce design reiterations and thus reduce new product development costs
3. Minimize problems associated with EOL components in the assemblies
4. Avail smooth operations and unit cost savings
5. Productivity is sustained and improved
6. Product development cycle time accelerated by improving productivity of the affected teams
7. Major supply chain disruption and corresponding expenses reduced.

1.5                                                  SIGNIFICACE OF THE STUDY
Studying the life cycle of electronics system help producers of electronics system to predict to obsolescence of the electronics system. This seminar will help producers of electronics system to calculate the warranty year of their electronics. Life cycle of an electronics system provides a timely analytical framework and methodology for conducting systems analyses to determine the most productive, least costly steps for improvement. Life cycle of an electronics system involves the cradle-to-grave examination of a product, from raw material extraction and manufacturing through distribution, use, and final disposal. This methodology is used to quantify and calculate the resources and energy used, and emissions and wastes generated, by the system. Internationally, Life cycle of an electronics system has gained recognition as the most comprehensive methodology of its kind for assessing environmental burdens. Life cycle of an electronics system studies are proving extremely useful to companies seeking to optimize product and packaging design decisions from an environmental perspective.

1.6                                                           SCOPE OF THE STUDY
Systems, devices, and components gets fast obsolete in the fast changing technology world. The life of the products and the components vary due to various economical and technological reasons.
Finding an obsolete part is near impossible task. The failure in finding parts delays the whole project. The discontinuation of manufacturing by the supplier for an important part causes significant loss to the user. This drives the concept of storing, updating and reviewing the component information especially about the life-cycle data, availability, alternates, etc., periodically. The management of components when they are active is far easier, cost-effective and simpler than they are obsolete and hard to locate. Creating an alternate plan for obsolete components and implementing the plan is many times as good as re-designing the product again with new components.

1.7                                                    APPLICATION OF THE STUDY
i. producer: this study of life cycle of an electronics system is useful to producer – to monitor the obsolescence of the electronics system , it help them to monitor electronics to produce at the right time.
ii. Supplier: supplier use this study to know the system that is still moving in the market.
iii. Consumers: help to avoid using obsolete electronics system.

2.2                                                                  LIFE CYCLE STAGES
Most electronic parts pass through several life cycle stages corresponding to changes in part sales. Fig. 1 is a representative life cycle curve of units shipped per time, which depicts the six common life cycle part stages: introduction, growth, maturity (saturation), decline, and phase-out [7]1. We include an additional category called Obsolescence. Table I and the proceeding discussion summarizes the characteristics of the stages of the part life cycle.

• Introduction Stage

The introduction stage in the part life cycle is usually characterized by high production costs driven by recently incurred design costs and low yield, frequent modifications, low or unpredictable production volumes, and lack of specialized production equipment. Marketing costs, at this stage, may also be high. Early adopter customers who buy a part in its introductory stage tend to value performance over price.

• Growth Stage

The growth stage is characterized by the part's market acceptance. Increased sales during this stage may justify the development and use of specialized equipment for production, which in turn improves economies of scale of production. Mass production, mass distribution, and mass marketing often bring about price reductions. This stage often consists of the largest number of competitors, as opportunity- seeking firms are attracted by the part's profit potential and, strategic acquisitions and mergers have not yet taken place.

• identification of a problem associated with the part
• failure to reach the critical mass that allows economies of scale to be realized
• Lack of a unique and compelling application for the part.

Niche parts generally have some unique applications and thus hold at a constant but relatively low sales level. An example is GaAs ICs, which found a niche market in telecommunications, military, and space applications.
Decline can often be delayed or reversed by revitalizing the original part. Defining new market segments, new applications, or creating a new image for the part, and thereby increasing the demand can cause revitalization.

2.2                                                              LIFE CYCLE COST

The life cycle cost of a product includes not simply the cost of materials and labor to manufacture it, but in fact all costs associated with the product from inception to retirement. The idea of a life cycle approach to cost is not specific to embedded systems, but rather is more generally applied to very expensive capital purchases such as buildings, factory machinery, and military systems (ships, planes, tanks, etc.). However, since embedded system designers are often embedding computers in such expensive systems, it behooves them to understand the financial model for life cycle costing so that they can take this into account in their work.
Kirk & Dell'Isola's book [Kirk95] provides a comprehensive look at life cycle costing from the perspective of operating a commercial building, such as an office building (the following discussion is based on material from that book with some augmentation). However, the concepts they discuss apply to many embedded systems in general. (As an aside, an office building is in fact an embedded system. There are computers controlling the climate, operating the elevator system, and in many cases controlling the lighting. In some buildings these three systems are beginning to be coordinated for efficient operation as well as lower cost maintenance.) In general, the factors included in the life cycle are those discussed in the previous section with respect to design and retirement of the product. In general, the idea is to minimize total cost for owning and operating an embedded system over the complete life of that system. This means that in addition to technical design factors, specific economic factors must be considered.
The life of a product is the shortest of three different aspects of system life:

• Useful Life (utility). This is the obvious notion of equipment lifetime, in which eventually equipment wears out to the point it is beyond reasonable repair.
• Technological Life (obsolescence). A system may become expensive or impractical to maintain even though it still is theoretically repairable or operable in general. For example, it may be impossible to find technicians trained in repairing vacuum-tube operated computers, or it may be impossible to find replacement parts for 16 Kb DRAM chips. Or the system may simply not incorporate the latest technology that in and of itself is seen desirable by users (for example, a rotary dial telephone system).
• Economic Life (cost of operation). A system may still be functional, but become too expensive to be worth continuing to use. One example is because of a high cost of repair using obsolete components (this is a typical problem in long-lived embedded systems). Another reason may be that newer versions can be purchased and have lower operating costs so that the "payback" period of making that purchase is brief. This has, for example, happened recently with fuel-efficient furnaces and air conditioners.

Although it may not be possible to completely predict the lifetime of a system in advance, it is estimated taking these three factors into account. Then, the direct costs of ownership are considered, including:

• Initial purchase cost. Clearly purchase cost is part of total cost. The usual issue is optimizing whether one should pay a higher up-front purchase cost in hopes of reaping lower operating costs. In some cases there is a limit on the amount of money that can be spent, such as a credit line limit, which may cap the allowable purchase cost.
• Energy costs. Operating equipment usually requires energy, and can be a significant portion of total costs. In many cases embedded computers are used to increase energy consumption efficiency, and thus reducing energy cost is a primary goal. As an example, high-end home furnaces perform energy management to maximize heat delivered to the house and minimize heat that escapes into a basement from hot water "stranded" in the basement heating elements when the thermostat reaches its set point.
• Maintenance/Repair/Custodial costs. A low initial purchase cost may be indicative of a system which will need frequent maintenance, repairs, or upkeep. Presumably a higher purchase cost indicates a system that contains more durable components. For an embedded system, it is more likely that components other than computers will break. However, installing sensors, data logging, and diagnostic capabilities for the system can substantially reduce these costs. As an example, elevators may come with minimal diagnostic sensors, but a contract maintenance company may well add sensors in an up-front investment to reduce the cost of later service calls.
• Alteration/replacement costs. In a long-lived system that will be upgraded, it is important to take into account eventually removing or upgrading the equipment. As an example, a component or housing may be glued into place to save on installation costs, but be very difficult to remove, whereas a bolted-in system is more expensive to install, but cheaper to replace. A more specifically electronic example is the use of flash memory to permit field software upgrades without replacing read-only-memory chips.

3.1                                                                  DISCUSSION
There are some market factors that are manufacturer and application-specific, which should be considered as an additional risk assessment associated with using a part. Any end-application that experiences growth encourages demand for the parts that go into its manufacture, which may result in a component market risk. For example, a strong growth in the demand for cellular phones has led to strong growth in the flash memory and EEPROM markets. The manufacturers having significant market share  and profitability have a reduced probability of leaving the market. For example, it is highly improbable that Intel will quit the microprocessor market, as it controls over 80% market share, and microprocessors represent Intel's core competency. The number of sources device/technology group may be a risk factor especially when looking at alternatives. However:

• Many sources do not necessarily infer health (for example: the 256K 5V, DIP asynchronous SRAM is currently manufactured by 9 manufacturers; however the device/technology group is being obsoleted by manufacturers who are replacing the device with SRAMs of the same functionality, but in newer package styles and lower voltages).

• Only a few sources may suggest that the manufacturers still in business command most of the market share (for example: some aftermarket manufacturers continue to manufacture families of TTL logic even after the original manufacturers have discontinued their product lines).

• A big market player quitting the business does not necessarily mean “death” of the device/technology group. Manufacturers may decide to discontinue a product line for a host  of business reasons, which may not have much to do with device/technology obsolescence. This occurrence is especially true in the "volatile" memory market. For example: Intel quit  the memory market and focused on their core competency: microprocessors.

3.2                                                               SUMMARY
An electronic part usually advances through six stages: introduction, growth, maturity, decline, phase- out, and discontinuance. The part life cycle curves provide a basis for part analysis and forecasts. The part life cycle sales curve can be used to develop forecasts and predict life cycles, and plan for system redesigns and periodic upgrades accordingly.

Engineers must be aware of the part life cycles, otherwise, an engineer can end up with a product, whose parts are not available, which cannot perform as intended, cannot be assembled, and cannot be maintained without high life cycle costs. While technological advances continue to fuel product development, engineering decisions regarding when and how a new part will be used, and the associated risks traded-off with a new part and technology, differentiates the winning from the losing products. The life cycle forecasting model presented in this paper:

• Captures market trends by identifying a set of quantifiable market and technological attributes (such as memory density, device supply voltage, memory device type, package style) that govern the growth and demise of device/technology groups,
• Computes both years to obsolescence and life cycle stage, based on statistical analysis of sales data for the market and technology attributes for the device/technology group,
• Computes an overall risk factor associated with a specific part number by implementing market factors, such as component risk, manufacturer market share, and part life cycle information.

The impact of the aftermarket is not accounted for in the life cycle curve approach. However, this is more of a "sourcing/availability" issue than a device/technology obsolescence issue. Aftermarket sources continue to manufacture the device long after the original manufacturers have obsoleted the actual device/technology groups. Equipment suppliers often build "special" relationships with aftermarket sources, sunset distributors, and GEM4 sources (such as Sarnoff) to ensure continued availability.

3.3                                                              REFERENCES

• B. Foucher, R. Kennedy, N. Kelkar, Y. Ranade, A. Govind, W. Blake, A. Mathur, and R. Solomon, “Why a new parts selection and management program?” IEEE Transactions on Components, Packaging and Manufacturing Technology, Part A, vol. 21, no. 2, pp. 375-382, June 2018.
• A. Bumbalough, “USAF manufacturing technology’s initiative on electronics parts obsolescence management,” in Proceedings of 44th International SAMPE Symposium, pp. 2044-2051, May 2019.
• R. C. Stogdill, “Dealing with obsolete parts,” IEEE Design & Test of Computers, vol. 16, no. 2, pp. 17- 25, April-June 2019.
• M. Wright, D. Humphrey, and P. McCluskey, “Uprating electronic components for use outside their temperature specification limits,” IEEE Trans. on Components, Packaging, and Manufacturing Technology, Part A, vol. 20, no. 2, pp. 252-256, June 2018.
• Levitt, T., “ Exploit the Product Life Cycle,” The Harvard Business Review, Nov – Dec, 2015.
• M Jackson, P. Sandborn, M. Pecht, C. Hemens-Davis, and P. Audette, “A risk-informed methodology for parts selection and management,” Quality and Reliability Engineering International, vol. 15, pp. 261-271, 2019.
• “Product Life Cycle Data Model,” American Standard ANSI/EIA-724, September 19, 2017.
• E. Sherwood, Proposal to EIA, “Product Life Cycle (PLC) Code Definitions and Applications,” Motorola, Inc., February 7, 2010.
• M. Pecht and D. Das, “The Electronic Part Life Cycle,” IEEE Transactions on Components and Packaging Technologies, vol. 23, no. 1, pp. 190-193, March 2010.
• Texas Instruments, 1999 Standard Linear and Logic Product Withdrawal Device List, September 2, 1999.
• National Semiconductor, “Product Folder LF11331,” available at http://www.national.com/pf/LF/LF11331.html as of March 28, 2000.
• Karls, J., Dickens, H., and Shon-Roy, L., Status 1998, A Report on the Integrated Circuit Industry, ICE, Scottsdale, Arizona, 1998.

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